This study uses nationally representative data on smallholder farmers in Malawi collected between 2009 and 2019, along with time series data on tobacco prices to consider the profitability of Malawian tobacco and potential alternative crops such as groundnuts, soybeans, pigeon pea and maize.
We find that that the percentage of smallholder farmers growing tobacco declined over the past 10 years from 16% in 2009/10 to 5% in 2018/19. This is consistent with a decline in tobacco prices during that time. However, it is important to note that the tobacco price decline occurred after a significant boom in the late 2000ʼs and tobacco prices are still at or above the levels from 15-20 years ago.
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